clips of logic

I came across this theory on how we tend to value our own creation more than others while reading Dan Ariely‘s latest book, The Upside of Irrationality.

Toothbrush Theory

Everyone wants a toothbrush, everyone needs one, everyone has one, but no one wants to use anyone else’s

It is also known as the Not-Invented-Here bias. This applies to things you buy, food you eat and even your ideas.

We tend to overrate and overvalue our own ideas and creations. In fact, we continue to do so even when someone else made it seems as if we came up with it ourselves.

This bias is useful in keeping us motivated and committed to pursue our own work but it could also blind us from better solutions and ideas out there.

On the other hand, it seems quite of Malaysians including myself tend to prefer products from other countries. I think we need to strike a balance on this and give some of the local products a chance.

Since you were a baby, you learn from observation. You’ll mimic behaviors of your parents or siblings. You’ll start to realize that if you cry, you get food. We learn all these patterns and behaviors from observing others and the environment around us.

This is a vital skill and many great discoveries started from an observation. It is however extremely dangerous and rather stupid to rely solely on observation to find out about something. Take a look at these examples.

Assuming you have no knowledge of the mathematical symbols addition (+) and multiplication (x), what can you conclude from observing these 2 equations

2 + 2 = 4

2 x 2 = 4

From these 2 equations, you can conclude that + and x are the same and some might even go a step further and argue that x is just + written differently or wrongly

Now another similar example. What can you conclude from these 2 equations

4 – 2 = 2

4 ÷ 2 = 2

Similarly, you can observe from these 2 equations that – and ÷ gives the same result

Some of you might say, well those are rather simple and dumb examples. No one will conclude something simply based on a small observation sample. But sad to say, in my limited 20+ years of observation, there ARE people who draw conclusion from 1 or 2 observations.

Do you know anyone who decided not to buy something simply because they heard their friend’s friend had some issue with it? Did they check if it’s the same model? Was the issue due to faulty manufacturing or a user’s mistake?

It becomes scarier when people start to use past observation to predict the future. Your observation is simply 1 possibility and there could be millions or billions of others. When you start to assume, you need to be aware of the possibility of being wrong.

Sometimes you try to draw a better conclusion by asking more people. But what if your friends all have similar demographics? Just because all your friends think something is good doesn’t guarantee that it is. After all, peer pressure will tend to make individuals conform to their social norm.

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t learn from observation but rather to not so easily conclude something based solely on observations. It’s not enough to just increase the sample size. You need to consider different scenarios and always be open to other possibilities. You need to conduct experiments.

When someone tell you something is faulty, ask him exactly what is wrong. Ask other friends. Go online and do some research. If you can, get yourself a sample to test if the problem is an isolated case. Having done all that, you still must account for the possibility that it could be something else you missed.

An observation is merely the beginning of the learning process. You need to test and experiment your observation before you can conclude anything from it. Start by observing and make no assumptions. Test and experiment your findings. Then conclude but be ready to go through the entire process again.

Learning is a life-long process because a new observation can change what you already know. So start observing but don’t forget to experiment.

Ideas are usually born from some insights. Google founders’ insight was their PageRank algorithm.  They realized they could sort the web by their link popularity. The more incoming links a page has, the higher it ranks.

For Showtimes.my, the simple insight we had was to deliver what the user wants (showtimes) in the fastest possible manner. This meant showing all the movies that are shown in your area at once and format the showtimes nicely so it’s easier to read.

Obviously, the better the insight, the better idea will be.  So far, most of our ideas are developed from rather simple and common insight. Hopefully, one day we’ll have some rare insight to a problem and build a solution for it.

Every time I start working on a fresh new idea, I get really excited and motivated. The first few weeks will be extremely productive as you have momentum and optimism on your side.

It’s similar to the feeling when you first got a book. You’ll go through the first few chapters really quickly. If you’re fast, you might even finish it on the same day.

But unlike reading a book, working on an idea and developing it can’t be done in a day or two. It’s a marathon not a sprint. So what happens when your initial enthusiasm and motivation wears off?

You’ll start to be less productive and suddenly everything seems hard. At times, you might even ask if you should continue working on it. You’ll start to notice all the flaws and problems with your idea.

My advice is that you have to see it through somehow. Nothing great and worth doing has ever been easy. You’ll learn more from finishing it and fail than abandoning it half way.

It is said that failure is the best teacher. I think success is a better one but to get to either, you actually have to reach the finish line. Whether you succeed or fail, you win. You lose when you give up half way.

The only other reason you lose is that you didn’t even start. So get started and make sure you persevere till the end.

Around the same time I started this blog, I also started a brainstorming group with a few close and smart friends. We called it Idearum and met up every fortnight to share ideas and discuss certain issues.

Then early this year, we restarted the group and with some new members and started discussing about business ideas and things we can do. We all agreed that instead of just brainstorming ideas, we should try implementing some of them.

Inline with this new direction, I’ve decided to start an online community that encourages people to take action and work on their ideas. Hopefully, with the support and resources from the community, it will be easier to realize your dreams and bring ventures to life.

At this moment, we are still developing the site itself so hopefully soon we’ll be able to launch it and inspire more people to take action and create value. After all, life is too short to not do something that matters.

If you got an idea that’s been stuck in your head for a while, it’s time to take action and work on it. Start a newsletter or work on that painting you always wanted to do. Lead a movement or build that iPhone app you wanted.

Whatever the idea, nothing will happen unless you start taking action. And maybe, just maybe, with enough of people doing great work and stuff that matters, we might be able to change the world.